The Fed.
Policy, not personalities. The target range straight from FRED, the balance sheet and the pace it is shrinking, what the futures market is paying for at the next meeting, where that lands against the Fed's own dots, and our read on what all of it does to your money.
Who has to blink
| Year end | Fed median | Market implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.10% | 4.17% | +7bp |
| 2027 | 4.10% | 4.87% | +77bp |
Fed medians: FRED FEDTARMD and FEDTARMDLR, from the Summary of Economic Projections dated 2026-09-16; the longer run median is 3.20%. Market: CME 30 day fed funds futures, 2026-09-30 13:00 UTC. Contract prices are chained through the published FOMC calendar, day weighted within each meeting month. A dot is the midpoint of the target range while the futures settle on the effective rate, which usually sits just under it, so a single digit gap is basis, not disagreement.
What the Fed just did to you
Rising Real Yields · Fed read
SOFR sits at 3.9, up 0.26 in a month and near its 5 year average (z 0.1878), while the real 10y yield at 2.9 carries a 5 year z score of 1.4738 and rose 0.56 in a month.
Straight from the source
- SEP 29 · WallerPayments in the Age of AI Agents
- SEP 29 · BarrEconomic Conditions and Monetary Policy
- SEP 29 · BowmanOpening Remarks
- SEP 28 · CookAn Update on AI and the Economy
- SEP 23 · BarrA Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter
- SEP 22 · JeffersonDiscount Window Modernization and Treasury Market Functioning
Federal Reserve speeches feed, federalreserve.gov. Newest item SEP 29.