The Fed.
What Powell said, what he meant, and what the bond market heard instead. Dot-plot deltas, FOMC probabilities, and a live speakers calendar.
What the market is pricing
CME FedWatch-style market-implied cut/hold probabilities ship with the fomc_probabilities cron. Until then this bar shows nothing rather than fabricated percentages.
| Horizon | Mar dots | Jun dots | Δ | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 year-end | — | — | — | — |
| 2027 year-end | — | — | — | — |
| 2028 year-end | — | — | — | — |
| Longer run | — | — | — | — |
SEP median dots (March / June) + market-implied forward rates ship with the fomc_dot_plot cron.
What the Fed just did to you
Hawkish Hold · Fed read
Fed maintaining restrictive stance. Rate cut expectations pushed to H2. Balance sheet runoff continues at $60B/month.
Who is on the wire this week
Weekly Fed speakers table ships when the fed_speakers ingest (CNBC / Reuters speakers rail) lands. Until then we render nothing instead of hardcoded names that would rotate week to week.
Hawk ↔ Dove · rolling 30d
Aggregate hawk/dove sentiment from the last 30 days of Fed speakers ships alongside the fed_speakers pipeline. The previous SVG curve was a deterministic PRNG, not real sentiment data.
Recent notes
The “higher for longer” trade is dead. Nobody has told Powell.
Markets pricing what Powell is still telling you won’t happen.
QT taper: how much relief, and when it actually lands
A $35B Treasury cap drop is a liquidity event. Here’s the math.
Reading the dots without the mystique
The plot is a survey. Here’s how to weight the voters.