The Fed.
Policy, not personalities. The target range straight from FRED, the balance sheet and the pace it is shrinking, what the futures market is paying for at the next meeting, where that lands against the Fed's own dots, and our read on what all of it does to your money.
Who has to blink
| Year end | Fed median | Market implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.10% | 4.15% | +5bp |
| 2027 | 4.10% | 4.75% | +65bp |
Fed medians: FRED FEDTARMD and FEDTARMDLR, from the Summary of Economic Projections dated 2026-09-16; the longer run median is 3.20%. Market: CME 30 day fed funds futures, 2026-11-13 21:59 UTC. Contract prices are chained through the published FOMC calendar, day weighted within each meeting month. A dot is the midpoint of the target range while the futures settle on the effective rate, which usually sits just under it, so a single digit gap is basis, not disagreement.
What the Fed just did to you
Holding · Fed read
SOFR was 3.89 as of 2026-11-10 (5y z 0.1416, 1m change 0.02), so funding is steady. The 10y real yield was 2.78 (5y z 1.3266) but fell by 0.13 over the month. No FOMC or QT data was supplied.
Straight from the source
- NOV 14 · JeffersonNew Technology, Old Questions: Productivity Puzzles and the Macroeconomy
- NOV 12 · BarrAmerican Inequality and the Future of AI
- NOV 10 · BowmanThe U.S. Economy and Considerations for Monetary Policy
- NOV 10 · WallerThe Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism
- OCT 15 · BowmanSupervisory Modernization After Silicon Valley Bank
- OCT 8 · WallerThe Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections
Federal Reserve speeches feed, federalreserve.gov. Newest item NOV 14.