Fed

Rate decisions, FOMC minutes, Fed speakers, dot plots, QT pace — everything the Federal Reserve does and signals. The most powerful force in markets, decoded without the Fedspeak.

fed

Powell Holds the Line: Two Mandates Pulling in Opposite Directions, No Rate Path in Sight

•Fed holds rates as dual mandate conflict hits first simultaneous amber signal since 2022 tightening
•Tariff shock adding 0.5–1.0 percentage points to inflation; energy wildcard still unquantifiable
•Watch medium-term breakeven inflation expectations — that's the trigger, not the CPI print

“The Fed just told you it doesn't know which way rates go next — and that's not a dodge, it's the most honest thing Powell has said in years. With the labor market softening and core PCE still running above target, the two mandates are pulling in opposite directions simultaneously for the first time since the 2022 tightening cycle began, and neither side has enough data to win the argument yet.”

Marcus Reid · April 1, 2026

All Articles

fed

Oil Shock Traps the Fed — Recession Risk Rises as Brent Nears $100

A $100 Brent print doesn't just hurt consumers at the pump — it handcuffs the Fed at exactly the wrong moment. With the unemployment rate already trending higher and GDP growth revised down heading into this shock, the central bank can't cut to cushion the blow without re-igniting inflation, and it can't hike without accelerating a recession that's already knocking on the door.

Marcus Reid · March 31, 2026

fed

Yield Curve Screams Recession: Rate Hike Window Slams Shut

When bond yields reverse hard while oil holds above $100 a barrel, the market isn't confused — it's telling you the recession math already won. The 2-year Treasury just collapsed from above 4% to 3.81% in two sessions, even as WTI and Brent sit at century marks: that's not a rates trade, that's the window slamming shut on every ECB hawk who thought an oil shock bought them cover to hike.

Marcus Reid · March 31, 2026