Net liquidity.
Fed balance sheet − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo. The single line that explains 80% of risk-asset direction over 60-day windows.
Net liquidity vs S&P 500
What is actually moving
| Component | Direction | Δ 30d | Δ 90d | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | EXPANDING | +$16B | +$104B | −$1B |
| TGA | REFILLING | +$129B | −$31B | +$294B |
| RRP facility | EXHAUSTED | +$1B | −$2B | −$154B |
| Bank reserves | CUSHION | −$84B | +$107B | −$186B |
| NET LIQUIDITY | FLAT | — | — | — |
The desk interpretation
Liquidity Overview — Week of March 25, 2026
The liquidity tide is flat. Net liquidity sits at $5.78T with zero movement on both the 7-day and 30-day windows — a dead calm that rarely lasts. With RRP fully drained and QT effectively at zero, the traditional tailwinds that carried risk assets through 2024-2025 are exhausted. There's no new fuel coming from the plumbing.
What changed this week: nothing, and that's the story. When every major component — TGA, RRP, reserves, WALCL — prints a flat zero change, you're in a holding pattern. The system isn't tightening, but it isn't easing either. With VIX at 25.3 and the 10Y at 4.33%, markets are pricing real uncertainty without a liquidity cushion to absorb shocks.
Verdict for risk assets: Neutral-to-cautious. Flat liquidity at elevated volatility means the path of least resistance is sideways-to-down until a catalyst breaks the stalemate. Crypto and high-beta equities are most exposed — they need expanding liquidity to sustain momentum, and there's none on offer. Bonds are range-bound with the 10Y anchored near 4.33%.
Watch the reserve-to-GDP ratio, not the headline Fed balance sheet.
SPX-liquidity correlation is -0.78 over the paired series. When the correlation runs above 0.6 into a drain, a 2% liquidity contraction has historically mapped to a 3-5% SPX headwind over 30-60d.
Apr 1, 2026
Liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Δ liquidity | Our read | Impact · σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22 | $42B 2Y auction | −$42B | Indirect bid matters more than price | 0.6 |
| Apr 24 | $70B 5Y auction | −$70B | Tail watch. A tail here is the first real tell. | 1.1 |
| Apr 30 | Treasury refunding announcement | −$240B est | Coupon mix > size. T-bill share is the dial. | 1.4 |
| May 01 | FOMC · QT pace decision | +$0 to +$35B/mo | MBS runoff unchanged. Treasury cap could drop. | 0.9 |
| May 15 | Tax receipts peak | −$180B | Mechanical TGA fill. Priced, but underweighted. | 0.7 |