§ Dashboard · Liquidity
Net liquidity.
Fed balance sheet − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo. The single line that explains 80% of risk-asset direction over 60-day windows.
Regime · FLATDirection · 30d ◆ —Updated · Daily · FRED
Net LiqFLAT
$5.87T
◆ — · 30d
Fed Sheet
$6.75T
▲ +$0B · last wk
TGA
$877B
▼ −$77B · 30d
RRP
$1B
≈ Exhausted
§ 01 · 3-Year Track
Net liquidity vs S&P 500
1Y3Y5YMAX
Net LiquidityS&P 500 (rebased)60D CORR · -0.78
§ 02 · Component Decomp
What is actually moving
LAST 30D · Δ $B
| Component | Direction | Δ 30d | Δ 90d | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | EXPANDING | +$1B | +$11B | +$138B |
| TGA | DRAINING | −$77B | −$42B | +$72B |
| RRP facility | EXHAUSTED | — | −$0B | −$14B |
| Bank reserves | CUSHION | +$79B | +$62B | +$12B |
| NET LIQUIDITY | FLAT | — | — | +$17B |
§ 03 · What It Means
The desk interpretation
◇ Slack Tide
Commentary paused
Commentary paused, latest data above. Last published August 3, 2026.
◇ So What?
Watch the reserve-to-GDP ratio, not the headline Fed balance sheet.
SPX-liquidity correlation is -0.78 over the paired series. When the correlation runs above 0.6 into a drain, a 2% liquidity contraction has historically mapped to a 3-5% SPX headwind over 30-60d.
§ 04 · Upcoming Catalysts
Liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Δ liquidity | Our read | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | 10Y Treasury Note Auction | Cash out of reserves, into the TGA | Indirect bid matters more than price. A tail here is the first real tell. | MED |
| Oct 15 | Corporate Tax Deadline | TGA refills, reserves drain | Mechanical TGA fill. Priced, but underweighted. | MED |
| Oct 16 | October OpEx | No direct cash flow | A positioning date, not a liquidity date. | MED |
| Oct 28 | FOMC Meeting | Sets the QT pace | MBS runoff unchanged. The Treasury cap is the dial to watch. | HIGH |