§ DASHBOARD · SIGNAL
The Signal.
One composite regime read. 6 inputs, one per pillar we measure. No black box: every sub-signal is open and traceable.
Last refresh · 41m ago
◇ COMPOSITE VERDICT
◇ NEUTRAL
CONFIDENCE
25/100
Neutral, Conflicting Signals
The six inputs split without a dominant direction this week: rising real yields and building options hedging weigh against credit spreads that remain historically tight, while liquidity data was too stale to score and index moves were mixed. No single signal is unambiguous enough to force a directional call. Watch whether HY OAS keeps widening past 3.02 and whether the put/call ratio holds above 0.58.
◇ TRIGGER WATCH · 0 of 3 fired
Real 10y yield at 2.9, up 0.56 in a month, carries a 5 year z score of 1.4738.ARMED
CBOE equity put/call ratio rose from 0.46 on Sep 24 to 0.58 on Sep 29.ARMED
IG OAS at 0.83 and HY OAS at 3.02 remain near 5 year lows (z -0.8823, -0.711).ARMED
Trigger watch is a hard rule-set. When 2 of 3 fire, composite goes RED automatically. No desk discretion at that level.
§ 02 · SUB-SIGNALS
The 6 inputs, scored
WEIGHTING · EQUAL Z-SCORE
LIQUIDITY
≈ 0σ
Stale
FED
−0.8σ
Rising Real Yields
SMART MONEY
≈ 0σ
Mixed Rotation
MACRO
+0.8σ
Tight Spreads
MARKETS
≈ 0σ
Mixed
SENTIMENT
−0.8σ
Hedging Up
§ 03 · HISTORY
Composite · 3-year timeline
RISK ONRISK OFFRED