Who's on which side.
Commitments of Traders — the weekly CFTC report that tells you what Commercials, Asset Managers, and Leveraged Funds are doing in every futures market that matters.
Where we are at the tails
Net positioning · all tracked contracts
| Contract | Net · Comm | Net · AM | Net · Lev | Lev %ile (5Y) | Δ 1W (lev) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View S&P 500 COT detailES · S&P 500 | −710k | +1.0M | −406k | 24% | +2k | CONTRARIAN LONG |
| View Nasdaq 100 COT detailNQ · Nasdaq 100 | −61k | +85k | −36k | 36% | −150 | NEUTRAL |
| View Russell 2000 COT detailRTY · Russell 2000 | +65k | −15k | −55k | 39% | +10k | NEUTRAL |
| View VIX COT detailVX · VIX | +50k | −10k | −39k | 51% | +2k | NEUTRAL |
| View 10Y Treasury COT detailTY · 10Y Treasury | −397k | +2.1M | −2.0M | 17% | +92k | CONTRARIAN LONG |
| View Dollar COT detailDX · Dollar | −7k | +11k | −6k | 33% | −3k | NEUTRAL |
| View Euro COT detailEC · Euro | −343k | +286k | +12k | 68% | +252 | FLIPPED LONG |
| View Yen COT detailJY · Yen | +22k | −11k | −53k | 29% | +23k | NEUTRAL |
| View Pound COT detailBP · Pound | +78k | −103k | +26k | 52% | −3k | NEUTRAL |
| View Franc COT detailSF · Franc | +53k | −38k | −7k | 23% | −1k | SHORT |
| View Aussie COT detailAD · Aussie | −134k | +45k | +57k | 98% | +9k | CROWDED LONG |
| View Loonie COT detailCD · Loonie | +3k | +30k | −48k | 28% | +6k | NEUTRAL |
| View Gold COT detailGC · Gold | −180k | −180k | +94k | 47% | +5k | NEUTRAL |
| View Silver COT detailSI · Silver | −23k | −23k | +11k | 32% | +237 | NEUTRAL |
| View Crude Oil COT detailCL · Crude Oil | −544k | −544k | +71k | 13% | −10k | SHORT |
| View Copper COT detailHG · Copper | +29k | +29k | +63k | 97% | +3k | CROWDED LONG |
| View Nat Gas COT detailNG · Nat Gas | +181k | +181k | −107k | 5% | −10k | HISTORIC SHORT |
The 10-Year Treasury divergence is the dominant story — watch whether asset managers continue adding to their record long or whether any position trimming begins, which would signal the bond rally thesis is cracking. In crude oil, the tension between record producer buying and accelerating managed money selling will resolve one way or the other; a weekly close below $75 WTI would likely trigger further speculative liquidation and test whether producers step in. The Australian dollar crowded long is a live grenade — any negative macro surprise out of China or a shift in RBA tone could trigger a rapid unwind given how one-sided positioning is. Finally, gold's 0th-percentile managed money reading sets up a potential re-entry point if price holds current levels; watch for any uptick in managed money positioning next week as a confirmation that the washout is complete.
S&P 500 · 3-year positioning
What it means this week
The 10-Year Treasury is the most crowded long in nearly a decade, while the Australian dollar just hit a positioning extreme that has historically preceded sharp reversals.
Asset managers added 57,277 contracts to their 10-Year Treasury long this week, pushing their net position to +2,257,647 — a 97.7th five-year percentile reading. Simultaneously, leveraged funds extended their short by 55,524 contracts to -2,095,799, sitting at the 10.8th five-year percentile. Dealers piled on the short side too, dropping 42,547 contracts to a 2.7th five-year percentile. This is the single largest divergence between asset managers and leveraged funds in the 10-Year in recent memory.
10-Year Treasury positioning reaches a generational extreme
When the two biggest players in a market are this far apart, something has to give. Either asset managers are right that rates are heading lower, or leveraged funds are right and the long side is about to get squeezed. The size of this divergence means the eventual unwind — whichever direction — will be violent. Watch the 10-Year yield closely: a sharp move higher would force asset managers to cover, amplifying the selloff.
By Nate Harmon · Week of Apr 28, 2026