COT Signals Dashboard

The dominant signal this week is the 10-Year T-Note, and it deserves your full attention.

Asset managers added +57,277 contracts in a single week, pushing their percentile to 94.2th — a two-year extreme. Simultaneously, leveraged funds shed -55,524 contracts, dropping to the 26.9th percentile. Dealers are at the 5.8th percentile (short). That is three different player types, all pointing the same direction: real money is loading up on duration while fast money bails. This divergence has been building for four straight weeks — asset managers have sat above the 80th percentile in TY since late March. That kind of persistence is not noise.

The read: institutional players are treating current yield levels as a buying opportunity. Leveraged funds disagree, or are being forced out. When this spread resolves, one side is wrong in size. Given that TY prices have slipped -1.8% over the four weeks this signal has been building, the asset manager accumulation looks like a deliberate fade of the selloff, not a momentum chase.

Gold remains the other persistent story. Producer/Merchant short positioning hits 93.3th percentile for the fourth consecutive week. Managed Money longs have recovered slightly but sit at the 0.0th percentile — the most washed-out speculative long positioning in two years. Hedgers this short means producers are locking in prices aggressively. That is typically a ceiling signal, but with managed money this absent from the long side, a squeeze setup remains on the table. Gold is up roughly 3% since this divergence first appeared. Watch whether managed money starts rebuilding.

Crude oil is the cleanest persistent extreme in the data. Producer/Merchant longs at the 100.0th percentile for four consecutive weeks. Managed money sits at 33.6th. Producers hedge when they expect lower prices — and WTI has confirmed that read, falling -4.6% over the period. No reversal signal yet.

Australian dollar extremes remain locked in: asset managers at 100.0th, leveraged funds at 92.3th, dealers at 1.0th. AUD is up +4.9% over four weeks. That is a crowded long with price already having moved. The risk/reward of chasing this is not attractive.

What to watch next week: Whether leveraged funds continue cutting TY exposure or stabilize. A second consecutive large reduction would sharpen the divergence and the eventual reversal signal considerably.

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Acid Capitalist is a news and commentary site. Nothing here is financial advice. COT positioning reflects futures market data with a reporting lag — use it as one input, not a trading system.