COT Signals Dashboard

Acid Take: The Treasury dealer desk just blinked.

Dealers in the 10-Year T-Note covered 138,734 contracts of short exposure this week, the biggest move on the board, cutting their net short from -719,408 to -580,674. Asset managers went the other way, trimming 103,596 contracts of the longs that had them pinned near the 100th percentile just two weeks ago. That's a five-week-old extreme starting to unwind. Dealers have sat at or near the 0th percentile since late August; this week they climbed to the 3rd percentile. TY price is up 6.9% over the same four weeks. When the desk that's been eating margin calls on shorts finally covers, the trade that pushed price higher is running out of fresh hands to squeeze.

Bias Flag: Everyone's watching stocks for the next move. The bond market already made it.

E-mini S&P 500 leveraged funds added to shorts again, -82,431 contracts, pushing the net short to -375,574 even as the index grinds to a four-week high, up 1.1%. Funds are pressing a losing hand. Either they know something the tape doesn't, or they're setting up the squeeze.

Copper stays the most crowded table on the board: Managed Money has sat at the 90th percentile long or higher four of the last five weeks, this week hitting 100th again. Producer/Merchant sits at the 2nd percentile short, mirroring the squeeze. Nobody's folded yet.

This is commentary, not investment advice.

Watch next week: whether TY dealer covering keeps going, whether the ES short book capitulates, and whether copper's managed money longs take profit before the producers do.