COT Signals Dashboard

Extreme positioning, big shifts, and smart money divergences across all 6 markets. Signals are detected weekly from CFTC Commitment of Traders data.

Data as of August 4, 2026. Published August 7, 2026.

Signals Briefing

By Nate Harmon · Week of August 4, 2026

The loudest signal in this data isn't new — it's the same one that's been screaming for four straight weeks, and the market hasn't listened yet.

10-Year T-Notes: The Trade That Won't Quit

Leveraged funds just cut their short position by another 75,931 contracts — following last week's 90,934-contract reduction. Asset managers sit at the 99th percentile long. Dealers flipped from a historic short to a 51,148-contract buy this week, after adding 56,986 last week. This three-way positioning alignment has been persistent since at least July 14. In that time, TY has moved +1.1% (yield lower). The signal is working, slowly. What would change the read: a decisive break back above 4.70% on the 10-year yield, or asset managers starting to distribute that 99th-percentile long.

Nasdaq and Russell: Still Crowded, Still Unresolved

Leveraged funds in NQ sit at the 0.0th percentile short — the most extreme short reading in two years of data. Dealers are at the 98th percentile long. Same story in RTY: leveraged funds at 7.9th percentile short, dealers at 96th percentile long. This divergence has persisted for four consecutive weeks. NQ is up 4.0% over that window. The funds shorting this market are losing, but they haven't covered in size yet. When they do, the squeeze will be fast.

Copper: Everyone's In

Managed money copper longs just hit the 100th percentile — the most crowded long in the dataset. Producers are at the 12.9th percentile on the other side, meaning the people who actually mine the stuff are hedging aggressively into this rally. That's the classic setup: specs all holding the same hand, commercials quietly folding against them. Copper hasn't cracked yet, but this is the kind of positioning that precedes ugly unwinds.

VIX: The Divergence That Keeps Persisting

Leveraged funds are at the 96th percentile long on VIX. Asset managers are at the 7.9th percentile short. VIX sits at 16.50 — exactly where it was four weeks ago. Somebody is wrong and paying carry to be wrong. The funds are positioned for a volatility event that hasn't arrived.

Watch Next Week: Whether leveraged fund NQ short-covering accelerates — that's the match near the gasoline. Also watch copper for any crack in managed money conviction.

Acid Capitalist is a news and commentary site. Nothing here is financial advice.