COT Signals Dashboard

The loudest signal this week isn't subtle. Leveraged funds added +143,489 contracts to 10-Year T-Note longs in a single week — one of the largest single-week positioning swings in this data set. They were sitting at extreme shorts as recently as late May. That's a full reversal. Meanwhile, asset managers are already at the 96.1th percentile long, dealers are at the 2.9th percentile short, and the 10-year yield has gone exactly nowhere over four weeks (4.50% → 4.50%). Everybody just piled into the same side of a trade that hasn't paid yet.

That's a crowded table. When leveraged funds chase a position asset managers already own at a 96th-percentile extreme, someone's holding a duplicate hand.

Persistent signals worth tracking:

The commodities producer/hedger divergences have been flashing for four consecutive weeks and the market is starting to listen — just not pleasantly. WTI crude producers are at the 100th percentile long (maximum hedge-removal / bullish commercial positioning) while managed money sits at 38.8th percentile. The price response: crude is down -19.1% over four weeks. Producers were right to be worried. Silver producers hit the 100th percentile short — maximum hedging — and silver has dropped -22.0% in four weeks. The commercials were not bluffing.

Gold producers are also at the 100th percentile short, while managed money is only at 30.1th percentile long. That divergence has been persistent since early June. Gold hasn't broken yet, but the hedgers are fully loaded.

The equity reversal is real but watch the internals. Leveraged funds added +142,052 contracts to E-mini S&P longs this week after sitting at extreme short territory for three consecutive weeks. That's the covering trade, not a fresh conviction long. ES is still down -2.0% over four weeks. Dealers flipped -130,731 contracts short against them. The Russell 2000 asset managers remain near the 6.8th percentile long — small caps are not confirming the equity optimism.

What to watch next week:

Whether 10-year yields finally move. With leveraged funds and asset managers both crowded long, any upside surprise in data that pressures bonds will hit a very full room. Also watch gold — four weeks of producer hedging at extremes with managed money still not fully positioned short is a compression spring. One of them is wrong.

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Acid Capitalist is a news and commentary site. Nothing here is investment advice. COT positioning is one signal among many — it tells you who's at the table, not when the hand gets played.