COT Signals Dashboard

Extreme positioning, big shifts, and smart money divergences across all 6 markets. Signals are detected weekly from CFTC Commitment of Traders data.

Data as of November 3, 2026. Published November 6, 2026.

Signals Briefing

By Nate Harmon · Week of October 27, 2026

The 10-year T-Note is the signal this week. In the report dated 2026-10-27, leveraged funds added 120,051 short contracts, taking their net position from -2,107,224 to -2,227,275. Asset managers bought 74,748, moving from +2,925,416 to +3,000,164. Dealers added 52,202, from -682,228 to -630,026. Asset managers sit at the 100th percentile of their two-year range, and they have been there in every weekly report in our history window, from 2026-09-29 through 2026-10-27. Over the four weeks, TY fell 5.13% (5.26 to 4.99). Asset managers kept buying through the drop. That is a player doubling down on a hand that keeps losing.

Bias Flag: I lean toward the crowded side being the buyers. Leveraged funds are only at the 26th percentile of their range, so the short is not extreme. The pain trade needs asset managers to sell. It would not need funds to cover. Other reportable traders are at the 1st percentile short and dealers at the 6th.

Other persistent signals:

Silver: Managed money has sat at or near the 0th percentile for five straight weeks (3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 0th, 0th in the weekly reports). Silver fell 18.52% (54.74 to 44.60) over four weeks. Producer/merchants are at the 92nd percentile short and swap dealers at the 99th.
Natural gas: Managed money is at the 0th percentile short and swap dealers at the 100th long. That is five straight weeks for swap dealers. Price fell 13.21% (3.18 to 2.76).
Crude oil: Producer/merchants are at the 96th percentile long, up from 92nd and 94th in the prior two reports. Price rose 7.50% (96.16 to 103.37).
Euro FX: Leveraged funds are at the 0th percentile short. EC is down 1.76%.
Gold: Producer/merchants are at the 99th percentile short. The material supplied has no gold price, so I cannot say what it has done since.

Reversals: VIX leveraged funds eased to the 62nd percentile from the 98th in the 2026-10-06 report. Australian dollar leveraged funds slipped to the 77th from the 95th in the 2026-09-29 report. NQ leveraged funds hold at the 93rd percentile long while NQ fell 7.88%. Asset managers there sit at the 33rd.

Watch next week: Whether asset managers in TY stay at the 100th percentile, and whether leveraged funds push their short beyond -2,227,275.

Acid Capitalist is a news and commentary site, not a financial adviser.