Today's 2-Year auction graded an F on the same day FOMC sits two days out — a weak short-end bid when the Fed is about to speak is a direct tell on how much the market trusts the rate path. Layer on managed money sitting at maximum short in both Euro FX and Yen, and you have a crowded dollar-long trade propped against crumbling Treasury demand — the two don't coexist quietly for long. If foreign appetite for the front end keeps deteriorating, the dollar unwind and the rates reprice hit simultaneously, and nothing in the AC signal stack is set up to absorb that.