The 7-Year auction on August 27 drew a D grade with a foreign bid of 60.78%, weak going into the Fed's September 16 decision. Leveraged funds hold the most crowded Russell 2000 short in two years, 2.97th percentile, against one of the largest Australian dollar longs on record, 90.1st percentile: a bet on a dovish Fed and a weak dollar. Five of six macro signals read bearish, only markets holds neutral. If the foreign bid keeps fading into the FOMC, that positioning has no room to be wrong.