Leveraged funds hold the most crowded Australian dollar long since 2026 and the most crowded yen long since 2025, both near two-year highs, while Russell 2000 futures sit near the extreme short end of their two-year range, the most since 2026. That pairs a weaker-dollar bet with a bet against small-cap risk appetite, not two separate trades. Sentiment held at nine elevated readings for a second straight week, and the FOMC is 39 days out on October 28. If the dollar longs break, the Russell short has nowhere to hide.