Smart Money

What The Smart Money Is Watching

The leading indicators that drive institutional allocation decisions. Updated daily with statistical context.

Credit Stress

3bp

HY Credit Spreads

34th percentile — Normal

↑ +0.1 in last month

Real Rates

2.02%

10Y Real Yield (TIPS)

81th percentile — Elevated

↑ +0.26 in last month

Funding Stress

-1bp

Fed Funds-SOFR Spread

17th percentile — Low

↑ +6.0bp in last month

Leading Indicators

Z (5Y): Standard deviations from 5-year average%ile: Percentile rank vs 5-year history1M: Change in the last month

Indicator	Value	Z (5Y)	%ile	1M Change
HY Credit Spreads 3bp · 34th %ile	3bp	-0.6	34th	→ +0.1
IG Credit Spreads 1bp · 22th %ile	1bp	-0.8	22th	→ +0.0
10Y Real Yield 2.02% · 81th %ile	2.02%	+0.8	81th	→ +0.3
SOFR Rate 3.65% · 34th %ile	3.65%	+0.1	34th	→ -0.1
5Y Breakeven Inflation 2.57% · 76th %ile	2.57%	+0.4	76th	→ +0.1
Fed Funds-SOFR Spread -1bp · 17th %ile	-1bp	-0.5	17th	↑ +6.0

How to read this data

These are the indicators that institutional portfolio managers monitor before making allocation decisions. They often move before equity prices.

Z-Score measures how far the current reading is from its 5-year average, in standard deviations. A z-score above +2.0 or below -2.0 is an extreme reading — historically rare and worth attention.

Percentile shows where the current value falls relative to all readings over the past 5 years. The 90th percentile means the current value is higher than 90% of historical readings.

Click any row to see the historical chart and what that indicator signals.

Leading indicator data is sourced from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Values are updated daily and may reflect end-of-day data. Z-scores and percentile rankings are calculated relative to historical distributions and are sensitive to the lookback period chosen. Indicator movements do not predict future market returns. This is editorial analysis, not financial advice.