Smart Money
What The Smart Money Is Watching
The leading indicators that drive institutional allocation decisions. Updated daily with statistical context.
Credit Stress
3bp
HY Credit Spreads
8th percentile — Very low
↓ -0.1 in last month
Real Rates
2.18%
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
93th percentile — Very high
↑ +0.28 in last month
Funding Stress
11bp
Fed Funds-SOFR Spread
99th percentile — Very high
↑ +12.0bp in last month
EXTREME READINGS (Z-SCORE > |2.0|)
Fed Funds-SOFR Spread at 99th percentile (5Y) — up 12.0bp in the last month
Leading Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
HY Credit Spreads 3bp · 8th %ile | |
IG Credit Spreads 1bp · 1th %ile | |
10Y Real Yield 2.18% · 93th %ile | |
SOFR Rate 3.51% · 31th %ile | |
5Y Breakeven Inflation 2.57% · 75th %ile | |
Fed Funds-SOFR Spread 11bp · 99th %ile |
How to read this data
These are the indicators that institutional portfolio managers monitor before making allocation decisions. They often move before equity prices.
Z-Score measures how far the current reading is from its 5-year average, in standard deviations. A z-score above +2.0 or below -2.0 is an extreme reading — historically rare and worth attention.
Percentile shows where the current value falls relative to all readings over the past 5 years. The 90th percentile means the current value is higher than 90% of historical readings.
Click any row to see the historical chart and what that indicator signals.
Leading indicator data is sourced from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Values are updated daily and may reflect end-of-day data. Z-scores and percentile rankings are calculated relative to historical distributions and are sensitive to the lookback period chosen. Indicator movements do not predict future market returns. This is editorial analysis, not financial advice.